The big mistake that futurists and computer geeks make is projecting the experience of using PCs at work into our homes. Such a projection doesn't hold, writes Leif Osvold in Oslo.

Data experts and so-called futurists increasingly predict that the Internet will become dominant in our daily lives in the coming years because we will be forced to use it via our home PCs. It is now necessary to refute such misguided trend-based claims, and here is a counter-hypothesis: The Internet is a flop - i.e., a "fad" that will die out in a couple of years.

There are three reasons for this: 1) None of the actors on the web will make money by offering their services there, 2) Private use of the Internet will remain marginal, and 3) The sheer volume of information on the Internet will become so enormous that it will create frustratingly large search problems, resulting in user dropout. Regarding the first point, I believe we will soon see a flight of providers from the Internet, once they realize they've fooled themselves out of fear of not being modern or missing out because "everyone else" is there.

As for the second point, I refer to what several media gurus say. They claim that by the year 2000, the Internet will be as natural a part of daily life as the PC is today. This statement is false for the simple reason that the PC is not currently a natural part of daily life. The mistake arises from not distinguishing between PC use at work and at home.

Computer development and the use of PCs at work have revolutionized the workplace and will continue to do so. This is largely a blessing for workers. But the big mistake made by futurists and computer geeks is projecting the workplace PC experience into the home. They claim that a similar revolution will occur there, but this projection does not hold, either theoretically or practically. PC use in homes may increase somewhat in the coming years, but I believe we are already near the peak. And this peak might be five percent of the population, meaning 95 percent do not use a PC at home (even if many have bought one). And it's the use that matters, not the possession. The reason is simply that humans are social beings and will eventually grow tired of communicating with a machine in their free time. Home PCs will mainly be used for work and study-related tasks, as well as for games and entertainment. Even these positive applications will remain limited in volume, even in the long term.

It is astonishing how futurists and computer experts overlook this fundamental social element in human nature. It's easy to observe that we humans are made such that we don't want to relate to a computer all day: we need to communicate with other living beings. This especially applies to those who use a PC at work. We will therefore not use a machine to communicate with the world in our free time. Nor will we sit alone at home doing our jobs without communication in a collegial work environment. So-called "telecommuting" will also not become widespread but will remain a minor niche.

Humans will always seek a social community because it is part of our basic nature. These needs will not change significantly, despite the PC. When we order tickets or travel, we want to talk to a living person, not type into a machine. When we rent a movie, we want to visit the rental store and choose in a visual environment. We prefer to shop by going to the lively atmosphere of stores, not sitting at home ordering goods. We can't "talk" to distant relatives or friends via a PC when we can call or visit them. We won't read newspapers, professional, or fiction literature by "flipping through" a computer - we want to feel the paper and book in our hands. These experiences can't be replaced by "PC experiences," and fortunately, that's how it will remain. In short: Our fundamental social needs directly conflict with the use of computer systems in the home and will naturally prevail in the long run. As for using the Internet to access all the world's information, I believe this will die out on its own. We are already overfed with information, and we get what we need from printed media, radio, and TV.

Today, only one percent of the population uses the Internet at home, and I don't think that number will grow much. How it is possible to make such a fuss about a medium that 99 percent of the public doesn't use privately can only be explained by the fact that the mass media are the main actors on the Internet as well.

CAPTION: Fad. The Internet is a fad that will die out in a couple of years, says Leif Osvold.

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The original article was published in Dagens Næringsliv August 20th, 1996.
Source image: osvold_internett_en_flopp.jpg
The Norwegian text has been automatically translated to English. Please send an email if you notice any factual errors compared to the Norwegian version.