The predictions that the internet will become as commonly used as other media have lost their credibility. The internet will never become "mature," will never "take off" and will never become a mass medium, writes Leif Osvold.

Only 20 percent of those who have access to the internet use it daily. It's unknown how much and for what. Most of this daily use probably takes place at work, for example reading newspapers. The percentage is remarkably low, and probably won't increase in the future. It was, for example, much higher a year ago.

The advertising volume on the internet represents one to two percent of the total advertising volume in the country. A medium that has such publicity and has been in the country for four years and to which almost half of the country's adult population has access should, according to normal reasoning, have had much larger advertising volume. However, normal reasoning doesn't apply here, because the internet as an advertising medium is fundamentally different from other media. This applies both to the advertisement's size and design and the way the respondent can opt out of the message. An advertisement on the internet can never be anything other than a short brand headline plus one line of description. There can never be money or volume from such things. The majority of advertisements on the internet also bypass advertising agencies. I believe it's doubtful whether the mentioned share will ever become much larger.

Almost no one (except certain small niche companies) who is on the internet makes money. This applies to portals/search engines, newspapers and companies with product sales. However, we are seldom or never informed that the glorious internet companies being discussed are operating at a loss. We only get to read about either large turnover figures and/or what the company is worth on the stock exchange. And naturally when "the even bigger fool" – incomprehensibly – has bought up one of these loss-making enterprises. All purchases/sales of internet stocks (for example Nettavisen) are based on hypotheses about future earnings, which in my opinion will not be fulfilled. The expenses of being established on the internet are large, numerous and constant. On the other hand, revenues are small, and limited to three sources: subscription fees, advertisements and product sales. Subscription fees have long since proven to be a fiasco, and advertising volume is – as previously pointed out – small and naturally limited. Product sales on the internet will never reach such volume that it becomes a mass medium, because the number of buyers will be limited to a small minority of specially interested people. It will therefore be difficult to create profit. The newspapers prominently announce that approximately one billion is now traded via the internet in Norway, but then they "forget" to mention that retail trade alone amounts to approximately 200 billion. The internet share is therefore trivial. Most of those established on the internet who haven't yet earned a krone will eventually withdraw for purely economic reasons.

Email is a function of the internet, and a very welcome one. A great medium, though with its unfortunate side effects. But email is not the internet, and therefore doesn't count in measurements of people's use of the internet. Those who are enthusiastic about the internet often confuse this with email.

Using the internet at home is frustrating and time-consuming. It's fundamentally different from the old media telephone, TV and radio, which can all easily be used from the sofa. These media have the unique property that the user sees a face and/or hears a voice. In this respect, the internet is "alienating." To use the internet, one must go into another room (simultaneously leaving the social community – except for the lonely nerds), turn on the PC, connect to the internet, wait and then start searching. A solitary activity! With the very large amounts of material on the internet and the very limited hits that search sites provide, it causes increasing irritation and time consumption to find what one is looking for. And it will get worse! Frustration among users is also increasing because the service level and access to support from suppliers is poor. Result: The home PC is little used for internet.

Internet use at work will be reduced, both that which is possibly work-related (very little) and the purposeless surfing. The reasons for this are several, without me going into it here. Those who use PCs a lot at work are also so tired of computers that they barely manage to use the home PC in their spare time.

My sober conclusion is that the internet will never become "mature," will never "take off" (both expressions used by experts who still hope), and will never become a "mass medium," except for email. Many excuse the low usage frequency by saying that the internet is still primitive regarding design and other attractions, and that usage will therefore increase dramatically when the internet has become more streamlined. Such media development will, in my opinion, not affect ordinary people's use of the internet. The only thing that could have made the internet into something resembling a mass medium is getting internet into the living room via TV. This product has been marketed for a long time, but is apparently a fiasco. Internet-obsessed people are still waiting for a breakthrough for the internet in the mass market, and predict that it will become as commonly used as other media. These predictions have been prolonged repeatedly over the past couple of years, and have now lost their credibility. The forecasters forget that internet use is fundamentally different from use of all other mass media, both practically, socially and psychologically. A breakthrough will never come, the signals have been all too clear recently.

The use of a medium is controlled by the people, not by the technology. It is therefore a myth that social development moves quickly; it moves slowly, on the contrary, due to human natural inertia. If someone wanted to find the predictions about internet use from one to two years ago as well as predictions from 10-15 years back about how our society and everyday life would look at the end of the 90s, one would be able to see that the futurists were completely wrong.

The internet is in itself a fine medium. But sitting alone in a room and communicating with a computer can never become a popular pastime.

Leif Osvold is self-employed.

CAPTION: Lagging behind. Forecasters forget that internet use is different from use of other mass media, both practically, socially, and psychologically. A breakthrough will never come, claims Leif Osvold. Photo: SCANPIX

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The original article was published in Dagens Næringsliv 1999.
Source image: osvold_nettet_tar_ikke_av.jpg
The Norwegian text has been automatically translated to English. Please send an email if you notice any factual errors compared to the Norwegian version.