In the last three months, those who follow closely have been able to observe that internet usage in Norway has declined. These figures can only be found on the websites of Norsk Gallup, which conducts these measurements monthly. The measurement for May shows that both absolute and relative internet usage is stagnating or declining for the third consecutive month. Particularly striking is that during a period of increasing internet access, the proportion of those who actually use it is declining. This relative proportion is now down to 24 percent, from a peak of 29 percent three months ago. It is quite natural that internet usage has now stagnated and is beginning to decline. I have predicted this for a long time, as the only person in Norway, and have been laughed at. The initial curiosity has now subsided, and people have grown tired of searching more or less aimlessly on the internet. Home PCs are little used (this probably also applies to those who have received PCs free from their employer), and internet usage at work is gradually reduced as the initial curious surfing has subsided. The pure utility value of the internet for ordinary employees in ordinary companies is, moreover, greatly overestimated from management's perspective. The internet is probably a good tool for scientific environments, the media, and some "business to business" companies. For the general public – at work or at home – the internet will never become anything other than a medium we use for entertainment from time to time, or as I believe: will be forgotten as time passes.
We are experiencing the peculiar situation that companies and institutions are investing in the internet to an increasing degree, while the number of users is declining. Those who have invested in the internet with their own pages will probably never make money from it. The common excuse that "the market is not yet mature" is now becoming pathetic.
The internet market will never take off! General usage will decline, and advertising as well as commerce on the internet will remain of marginal significance. Most of the companies that are on the internet today will be forced to withdraw, because there is after all a limit to how long owners will lose money. Normal economic thinking has been absent so far, but by the end of this year we will see the first shutdowns on the internet. Before the year 2000, the internet will essentially be reduced to being a tool for special academic environments and computer geeks, as well as a medium for email.
LEIF OSVOLD Oslo
The original article was published in Dagens Næringsliv July 2nd, 1998.
Source image: osvold_tilbakegang_for_internett.jpg
The Norwegian text has been automatically translated to English.
Please send an email if you notice any factual errors compared to the Norwegian version.